Sure, seems obvious now. BUT, when I mean CW, I mean the whole throw-down, Marxists, students, everybody.
Here’s the scoop as I understand it from a lot of reading: Ahmadinejad is Khamenei’s lap-dog. We know that. Khamenei uses his lieutenant to beef up the IRGC and Basij, for the explicit purpose of controlling the population — while the regular army, in classic mid-east fashion, is almost completely unfunded, and would likely lose to the IRGC. Now, grain of salt #1: as my active-duty guys know, I can’t make that statement for real w/o a coherent order of battle and disposition. But there’s no question which of the two
- is motivated
- has been getting funded.
A clearer picture of Khamenei is emerging, and it seems that he’s in bad health. Really bad health. And that’s a problem, b/c his motivations are solely to get his son Mojtaba to inherit his position.
Yes, that’s right: the whole thing is nothing but a tawdry coup attempt designed to create Iran’s version of an Egyptian* or North-Korean political regime. Not that Rafsanjani, who’s called “The Crocodile” for a reason, is much, or even any, better. But Rafsanjani isn’t heading up a complete and total realignment of power inside the state — Ahmadinejad is. And there’s a very good chance he’ll pull this off.
This is one of those plays engaged in by Wily Bad Guys, and unfortunately, usually seems to work (c.f. Slobodan Milosevic’s replacement of Yugoslav power structure with an entirely-Serb cadre personally loyal to him, and whose Chetnik philosophical structure contains numerous elements psychologically and ideologically similar to the Basij/IRGC).
I don’t want to say the students are screwed: but that’s my tea-reading right now unless the Marxists running the labor unions not only jump in, but jump in hard. Khamenei will crush them, and Moussavi’s speech describing “supporting national industry” can only have been aimed at this audience. It’ll have to be more than the bus-drivers, too. K&A don’t care about public misery — fine, shut down Tehran and let people starve, they’re presiding over unemployment that’s long past the point where American (aka, heavily-armed) citizens would already be shooting people.
The faction is steering the country onto the Zimbabwe/Nork Road, and unless the guys controlling the economic levers lean hard, I see this ending very, very badly.
Side Note Follows
*As a side note, fuck Mubarak. If the Muslim Brotherhood wants to take over Eypt and demonstrate that it’s just as hopeless at governing as all the other islamists lately, I say let ’em duke it out, rather than spending $5B/yr propping the ugly sob and his son up (it’s well-known in foreign-policy circles that this is a bribe to keep Egypt from attacking Israel, but I believe this is counterproductive, just like much of our current NATO activity lets France and Germany screw over our actual allies while free-riding on our blood and lucre).