“He who kills my brother…

will be killed by me.”

Good luck, Iran.  Even if every Iranian were the arabist enemy of America that Ahmadinejad wants to pretend them to be (and they’re not), they deserve better than to suffer 40% unemployment and open Moscow-style thugocracy.

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7 Comments

  1. Zathras

     /  June 18, 2009

    We can only hope.

    The best historical analogy is the Philippines in 1986. Like then, the most relevant question is how much of the military can be convinced to switch sides.

    Reply
  2. happycrow

     /  June 18, 2009

    Or stand out of the way. If we so much as get an Iran where students aren’t beaten to shit with clubs by the Basij on a weekly basis, that alone would be an awesome step in the right direction.

    Reply
  3. Mike

     /  June 18, 2009

    If this is going to work, the army has to side with the demonstrators. The Revolutionary Guard is heavily armed and will shoot (if told to) and won’t switch over. The only force that could counter it is the regular military forces. But they are a wreck. I honestly don’t know if they could actually take the Guard on and win.

    Reply
  4. drteine

     /  June 18, 2009

    I agree with you Mike, but how numerous are the guard? Well armed helps but even the most hardened guards can only shoot so many of their own nation’s women and children before they get sick of it. Of course, I could be very wrong and they’re all politically hardened. Still – if they only number in the 1000s and the protesters are in the 10000s one wonders how much the Guard can really do.
    My other concern is how much the protests are just localized to Tehran vs. the countryside. If it’s just a urban center thing the revolution might not go very far.
    Still – I’m hoping for an overthrow as it will completely change the dynamics of the middle east in a very positive way for all.

    Reply
  5. happycrow

     /  June 18, 2009

    It’s tricky. The crocodile (Rafsanjani) is opposing Khamenei. R is no reformer, and Moussavi isn’t much of one (I much prefer Karroubi). The RG is heavily compartmentalized and fundamentally organized to keep this sort of thing down: if ordered to, they’ll spill Iranians all over the streets. But they’re also spread out, and the Shia understand martyrs: these are the guys who invented the human-wave minefield clearance assault. In urban zones, that could play, especially with arab and kurdish support.

    Reply
  6. Mike

     /  June 19, 2009

    Here is the trick to the RG, they are legion. Legion as in “Instead of a local VFW, they have a RG Hall”. Every town, village, city of any size and population center of over 10 people has a RG presense of some kind. It can literally be one guy for a small village of about 20 folks, or entire divisions for cities. These guys are like what the SS wanted to grow into: a police and army all rolled into one with units EVERYWHERE. These guys are literally the militia of old in which every population center has them as an organized force to “protect them”. That’s why the army/navy/air force (what is left of them anyway) has to join the fight. You can’t take on this city hall unless you can get literally everyone on your side except the cops, who are literally everywhere, heavily armed, and willing to shoot.

    Reply
  7. Cops so far have supported the protestors. So it’s the Crocodile (he’ll have the cops and army) against Khamenei with the RG …and vast hordes of students with rocks about to get slaughtered.

    Reply

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