September Electoral Math

Punditry aside, Obama is still winning the election, given current polls. Taking toss-ups out of the picture, Obama slips into office, not by a large margin, but by a reasonable one, 273-265, or roughly by Iowa or Colorado. (Colorado, having filled up with California refugees over the past ten years or so, is going to get more and more solidly “blue” over time, and even more dominated by its urban enclaves. The beginnings of this are beginning to be seen in Montana as well (and for the same reasons), but isn’t yet translating into a political sea-change.

The states in play are, generally speaking, the typical ones:  Iowa has Obama up 9 points, but has a tendency to really swing wildly during the last few days, so RCP marks it as “leaning.”  Pennsylvania has Obama up by 4… why they count this state as a tossup is a mystery, given the well-known tendency of the Philly machine to discover as many necromantic votes as is necessary to win.

The Palin ticket has definitely sparked some enthusiasm in the Republican base — good thing for them, too, or else McCain would be toast.  But any triumphalism currently being seen on the right is very, very poorly placed.

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