War in Georgia

The murdering bastards are at it again.  After years of putting up with Russians attempting to all but annex a third of their territory — territory which was respected even under the Soviet Empire — the Georgians are trying to get rid of their rebellion, and the Russians have dutifully weighed in and abandoned all pretenses to anything but empire, by sending in the tanks.

This is important: if the world community stands by and gives Russia carte-blanche to openly assert Empire, it WILL continue to do so until it is violently stopped.  Hope the Georgians make the bastards pay now: if not, sooner or later, NATO and Russia are going to dance for real.

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27 Comments

  1. You mean, if we do nothing and sit on our hands and let Putin stomp all over Ossetia, NATO will eventually face enough of a threat that they might actually start paying for their own defense instead of letting US taxpayers do it?

    Reply
  2. Happycrow

     /  August 8, 2008

    No. What I mean is, Russia will turn around and do it in enough places that eventually the bloodshed will spill over onto a power we’re obligated to fight for. It’s not Poland’s fault, after all, that western europe is nearly demilitarizing (let alone Hungary, which effectively IS demilitarized: they have more armed security guards than soldiers).

    Reply
  3. Mike

     /  August 8, 2008

    This sends chills up my spine. The really scary thing is that this area was one we wargamed in ILE. The threat was actually from the south (not Iran, but an amazingly similar country). One of the biggest things was how to keep Russia neutral in the fight.

    Not easy.

    This is a far worse case senario. From what I could read, the Russians have sent in a Motorized Rifle Regiment. Not a small force, although not a huge investment either. That adds to the “peacekeepers” they already have (figure about 3k worth of troops) that’s about 40% of a division. Plus air support. The big thing is that the Georgians seem willing to fight, and they have comparable gear, so this isn’t like the Serbs in Bosnia where its clubbing baby seal time. What’s more fun is that the Georgians are also packing lots of US gear. If you look at some of the photos, Georgian forces are wearing US style Kevlars and packing M16s. BOth side have seen some fighting so that is even.

    I am thinking this is a limited investment for the Russians. A single regiment isn’t anything big, but enough to show you are more serious than before. But certainly not enough to knock out Georgia.

    Yeesh, just what we need, a resurgent bear. But at least the NATO line is a lot further east than the Elbe River this time. I don’t know if NATO is going to help on this one (or could, right now NATO isn’t really capable of much, just look at Afghanistan).

    Reply
  4. Mike

     /  August 8, 2008

    The single MRR coudl mean something else. It could also mean that this was all the Russians could send due to training issues, breakdowns and generally poor military situation.

    One can hope, but I don’t think so.

    Reply
  5. Happycrow

     /  August 8, 2008

    Yeah, let’s put that in the “wishful thinking” box, and be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be true.

    Reply
  6. Happycrow

     /  August 8, 2008

    Mike, do me a favor: I’ve got a buddy in-theatre who wants to put together ORBAT, etc, and try to avoid some of the “peanut gallery” of cluelessness when you have guys who don’t know dick about military affairs or foreign policy opining on this stuff. can you register on the AA and visit the following thread?
    http://tinyurl.com/6mmnhc

    For readers here, I’ll copy/paste anything I see relevant into this one, so you don’t have to jump.

    Reply
  7. Mike

     /  August 9, 2008

    I can, but it will be tomorrow at the earliest due to WEDDINGOPS being conducted in the OKC theater of operations this weekend.

    Reply
  8. Anna

     /  August 9, 2008

    Ooh. Weddingops trumps everything. Keep smiling! 😉

    Reply
  9. celogo

     /  August 9, 2008

    Something’s gotta be brewing…

    Reply
  10. celogo

     /  August 10, 2008

    Brewing indeed… today’s escalation looks gawd awful. Pulling this off during the olympics… dang. Looking at Bush smiling with girls in bikinis pisses me off juxtaposed to what’s happening in Georgia. Keeping eyes glued to your blog

    Reply
  11. Mike

     /  August 10, 2008

    Hey Russ, I registered, but this site seems to be about armor. Did you put down the right site or I am wrong?

    Reply
  12. Mike

     /  August 10, 2008

    After hearing a bit more about what’s happening here is some stuff to watch for that will indicate how serious this could be. First, moves south (out of the region). That threatens the pipelines to the Black Sea and is a strategic move. Second, the Russians start turning away ships or declare blockade (that could bring in Turkey/NATO real quick). Third, Russians start hitting POL sites, pumping stations or refineries (strategic move hitting at the main economic element in the region).

    Russia seems to have already scored with the Georgians asking for a cease-fire. Note also the Russians are ignoring it. Not a good thing for Georgia, it means Russia thinks they are dealing with a position of strength. And they are probably right. I hate to say it, but I don’t think NATO is going to want to help out. Which probably means that NATOs border is going to stop where it is at the Baltics, Eastern Europe and so on. If NATO doesn’t move, no one else is going to want to piss off Russian knowing that no help is coming.

    Reply
  13. Happycrow

     /  August 10, 2008

    Agreed. No, it’s the correct site.

    Reply
  14. Mike

     /  August 11, 2008

    Huh, okay. I just accidentally deleted my new account password so I need to request it again.

    I hate to say it but I think Georgia has had it. I have heard reports that they have reached the main E/W road and cut it, which means that Georgia has been cut in half. They are also closing on the port of Poli (or Poti, I always mix them up). Georgian Troops are “regrouping” around the capital.

    Yeah, they are done. I didn’t figure Russia for a full up land grab, but that is what they did. I hate to use the past tense here, but barring a miracle Georgia is finished.

    On an even darker note, Tamara has a friend in OKC that is Goergian. Her two daughters are in the capital visiting their grandparents right now.

    For those so inclined, your prayers for their safety would be appreciated.

    Reply
  15. Happycrow

     /  August 11, 2008

    No kidding. They’ll get them. We’re back to the old bear, it seems.

    Reply
  16. Happycrow

     /  August 11, 2008

    You think this will actually get the Europeans to contemplate getting ready to defend themselves again?

    Reply
  17. Mike

     /  August 11, 2008

    Hell no. Eatern Europe probably (Poland, Check Republic, Romania, Hungary maybe), the Baltics definately. Germany? Nope. France is a no-go. England will do what they do (back us up). The closer to the Russians you are, the more serious they will take it. You go West, it will drop off.

    I don’t know if the US is going to want to pay for another Cold War either. We have our own fish to fry with the WOT.

    This mix could be bad, counter-insurgency has never been popular in the regular army, Russia would be a traditional opponent. That would make for problems in doctrine and training (Force Protection against insurgents is a heck of a lot different than for a regular force.)

    What a mess.

    Reply
  18. celogo

     /  August 11, 2008

    Prayers for the girls’ safety, including their Mother’s peace of mind, going up now.

    Reply
  19. convivialdingo

     /  August 11, 2008

    Unfortunately we don’t have much of a moral leg to stand on at this point…

    Found a bunch of pics from the front lines here:

    Untitled-8

    And you can read the Georgian’s side here:
    http://mfa.gov.ge/

    And Russia has already positioned a naval blockade. Mike’s right – they are toast.

    Reply
  20. convivialdingo

     /  August 11, 2008

    Oh, and the Russians didn’t just send any troops – no, they sent their Chechnyan veterans. Ouch!!

    Reply
  21. blackpine

     /  August 12, 2008

    Eight year ago, I thought Putin was a good idea. I was wrong wrong wrong. So godawful wrong.

    Reading letters by the late Solzhenitzyn, and it occurred to me. The west didn’t beat Communist Russia. This means two things. There was never a communist Russia. Russia just acts and thinks like that anyway (collecticist underclass, strongman goon at the top). Communism didn’t so anything but let them slough off a monarchy that was incompetent at expanding. Then they expanded some more. They they went broke, and now they’r reclaiming the lands they lost during the fall of the Soviets. In other words, we didn’t knock them down, they slipped.

    Reply
  22. Alex

     /  August 12, 2008

    Maybe its because I’m reading “A Canticle For Leibowitz” right now that I’m more worried about Russia’s nukes than I am about their conventional forces. Yes, they certainly can make a land grab and get away with it, and then they can squeeze Europe for petrodollars all they like. They’re in a position of power now and I expect they will continue to express it. However – I wonder about their ability to really wage war like the old Soviet Union. They may be rolling in money at the moment, but I wonder how much functional equipment they could actually field. They don’t need much to squash Georgia, but against all of the former Warsaw pact which is Pro-NATO and anti-Russian influence, they might not do so well.
    Which is where the nukes come in. Russia sitting on those fuel reserves combined with the fact that they are a nuclear superpower is what gives me pause more than their conventional forces.

    Reply
  23. Anna

     /  August 12, 2008

    Don’t be so sure about that pro-West anti-Russia feel in former Soviet bloc countries. I am saddened to say but I saw more pro-Russia articles regarding the current conflict on Hungarian newssites that I really cared to, despite my homeland being a NATO member and occupied by the Soviets for 40 years. I am very pessimistic at the moment. ::sigh::

    Reply
  24. Happycrow

     /  August 12, 2008

    The Hungarians systematically oppose the faction of their population still in possession of both balls, sad to say. But the PM is the former head of the Communist Youth, so you know he’s just fine with being Putin’s butt-boy.

    Reply
  25. Alex

     /  August 12, 2008

    I was thinking Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states mostly, but, you make an interesting point. What is pro-western today may change tomorrow.

    Reply
  26. Mike

     /  August 12, 2008

    No kidding on that one. Everyone fears Russia, and if they are not 100% sure that their allies have their back, they are going to make the safe play. But since the US doesn’t think long term or study history anymore we will fumble that.

    Russ, I checked out that site. Damn dude, you guys are all over it. I added acouple of comments but you have already hit most of the stuff Ii would have put up.

    Your biggest issue is that to get the good stuff requires being a paying member of Janes or Stratcom. Or be part of the Army and have access to the offical stuff. Which is actually hard since I am in the land of Basic Training right now with no real S2 in sight.

    On the brighter side, the girls are both okay. They will be flying home soon. No real issues in the capital, the Russians didn’t get there and everyone is saying that they have stopped (in Georgia I mean).

    And on the more bizarre side, I got to hear my future father in laws version of events. To say he is on the Russian side is being kind.

    Someone mentioned that Russia was sending in Chetnyan vets. I made a comment on the other site about this. We have the two different experiences bumping into each other. Unfortunately, the Russians had the more applicable one. They were fighting a more conventional fight versus the counter-insurgency in Iraq. In this case, the Russians had the better lessons. This is why counter-insurgency is not liked by the conventional army. An insurgency can be a pain, but you lose a conventional fight and this is what can happen.

    Reply
  27. blackpine

     /  August 15, 2008

    Afghanistan II: Die Harder!

    Reply

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