Hezbollah and Iran: Heat-Lightning, or the Full Coulomb?

The rumor’s swirling:  will Hezbollah transfer its prisoners to Iran?  Interesting question.  Remember my previous Casus Belli post?

If the rumor

  1. is true
  2. and Iran accepts said prisoners
  3. then it’s Game On and region-wide war.

Why is this?  It is this way because it’s public knowledge that Iran controls Hezbollah as a proxy agent, and sends anti-Israeli terrorists to southern Lebanon in order to engage in operations — since Iran can engage in nothing resembling plausible deniability (and indeed, does not seem to want to, so much as to get credit for everything that’s happening), Israel obtains full diplomatic cover to engage in order to try to rescue said soldiers.

The entire Hezbollah/Syria/Iran strategy is based on the assessment that neither the US nor Israel has the stomach for any real fighting, and is hopelessly divided politically.  Like most folks for whom the Press is simply an instrument of the State, these folks can’t separate signal from noise.  Notice the current lack of pious bleatings regarding Israeli restraint coming from Western Europe… the voices are there, to be sure, but they’re much fewer in number, and far more restrained than usual.  Stateside, even All Things Considered on NPR almost gave Israel a fair shake this morning. 

I hold by my original thesis:  somebody has miscalculated.  I know who my candidate is… we’ll see over the next couple of weeks whether I get to pass Go and collect $200.

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