Casus Belli and the Israeli-Hezbollah War

Every time I think Hamas and Hizballah can get no dumber, I wake up to the news on my radio.

It seems that Hizballah has made a serious miscalculation.

In the United States, just because you and your government give us casus belli, does not mean that we’re going to come kick your teeth in.  If it did, we’d have gone into North Korea (open counterfeiting of our currency plus numerous black ops), have put Mexico on notice (loose cannon soldiers engaged in smuggling across the border), have stomped Syria flat in 2004-05 (open smuggling of illegal combatants to a war zone), and be in the middle of preparing to go into Iran (supplying war materiel to our enemies).

However, just because somebody makes an act of war on us, doesn’t mean we have to respond.  In fact, we frequently let things pass specifically because it’s more easier and more productive just to let things slide while we engage in diplomatic and covert hammerlocks… or, simply let our enemies continue to stagnate delivering mosquito bites while we progress by leaps and bounds.

Currently this means letting all of those guys prepare to “fight the previous war,” on Iraqi terms… while we are using Iraq as a very successful laboratory on how to crush asymmetric warfare like a bug.  The thuglets on the block want to beat their chests about how they’ve recruited thousands of suicide bombers?  Let them.  The only way they can hurt us is if we bother to care enough to put troops where they can actually get to them.

Hugo Chavez wishes he mattered enough to get us to come after him.

Other nations do not have our luxury of response, and if you give them a sharp elbow, you can expect a sharp elbow back… because to do otherwise is the equivalent of cringing in a maximum-security prison.  So when the Israelis pulled out of Gaza, and Hamas got elected, that changed matters entirely from the modus operandi of previous decades.  Hamas is now the Palestinian Government, and when a government kidnaps soldiers, that’s an act of war… so the tanks rolled back into Gaza.

And, when Hamas’ allies in Hizballah kidnapped two soldiers… Hizballah having status within the Lebanese government as the de-facto government of its own territory, that is also an act of war.  It is the height of wishful thinking to believe that Israel would go after one of its soldiers in Gaza, and yet blink and cringe in the face of Hizballah.

The Nutcases of Lebanon made a serious miscalculation.  The border has been ready to explode for months, with overt Iranian support for Hizballah’s military logistics on-scene.  Everybody has been holding his breath for when Hizb decides to make a push south.  Instead, they gave Israel an opportunity to have the fight happen on a momentum of its own choosing… by engineering a situation in which Israel does not dare not respond. 

Hizballah should have known better.  Either

  1. the Nutcases have collectively decided that a bunch of Iranian bunkers equalizes a dogfight under total Israeli air dominance…
  2. a senior Nutcase really screwed up by authorizing an op he shouldn’t have…
  3. or some lower-level Nutcase is being roasted slowly over a fire as you read this, while being whipped with concertina wire on the hour. 

Hizballah being what it is, amazingly enough, the first two are more likely scenarios.

Kofi Annan can make whatever anti-Israeli statement he wants at the UN.  Europe, the US, China, Iran… everybody can say whatever they like.  None of it matters one bit, unless they decide to ante in with troops.  Fortunately for the rest of the Lebanese, and unfortunately for Syria, Hizballah, Hamas, and Iran, Hizballah’s act of war, like that of Hamas, gives Israel carte blanche to wipe them off the face of the earth. 

Because that’s the rules that nations have played under for the past two hundred years, and just because we have the luxury not to engage, does not mean that the rules have suddenly changed across the board.

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6 Comments

  1. very nice…one question: do you see any problems with the way the rules have been for the last 200 yrs? e-mail me if you chose to respond. Thanks.

    Reply
  2. That’s the problem with nutcases… they’re nuts. Don’t try to look for a rationale on the kidnappings or your head will hurt. If they were rational, they wouldn’t be who they are.

    There may be a lot of evil people in the world (on all sides) but if they could just be evil AND rationale, things would be so much easier.

    Reply
  3. blair

     /  July 12, 2006

    Hamas is rational, just criminal in their thinking. The kidnappings are recruitment campaigns. Think of the guy who gets more time every time he stabs someone in prison, but thinks he has so much time already that he would rather make the trade off of stabbing people for smokes and optimize himself for perpetual prison life, than deal with his sentence and eventually get out.

    Hams will never have the desire to be a government (I like that misspelling, I think I’ll keep it). They don’t want to be transparent, provide services, essentially change themselves to be a government. They will instead exploit the the prejudice of the population for personal gain. Think how many Lebanese and Palestinians will die in Israel’s reprisal, and then how Hams will use that to recruit. It’s rational but also lazy, exploitative and criminal.

    I think the Palestinians respect Hams because they have confused predictabilty with honesty.

    Reply
  4. blair

     /  July 13, 2006

    And the fifth Arab Israeli War is a go. Hezbollah just dragged it’s Lebanese patron into another war.

    Reply
  5. “Hams will never have the desire ”

    I’m sorry but that’s just funny.. Hams..

    Especially for Muslims..

    Reply
  6. Mike

     /  July 14, 2006

    Yeah, well I got something that is also funny. I read an article about the latest fashion trend in the Gaza strip, Lebanon and West bank. It seems that US Military uniforms are the coolest in thing to wear. The surviving fighters who are coming back from Iraq/Afganistan are talking about how freaken locked on the US military is. In many circles, we are now considered better (or worse depending on who are you talking to) than the Israelis. And since many of the Palistinans and Hams and Hezbolla can’t understand the reasons why, they are taking the poser way out.

    Looking like us.

    If we dress like the US troops then everyone will think we are as good as the US troops. The ACU uniforms are getting brought up for prices 4 times what they go for in the States by Hams and and others and they are copying everything down to unit patches (only the flag is missing).

    How sad can you be?

    Reply

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