NORK land invasion?

From what I’ve been hearing, this article falls in the bwahaha category.  My understanding is that the NORKs are critically short on food, fuel, and ammunition that doesn’t date from the 1980s.

Am I wrong here?

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9 Comments

  1. Mike

     /  May 29, 2009

    Ok, this one falls squarely in my area of expertise. Yeah, this is in the ROTFFL category. I honestly don’t know where exactly to begin on this so this will ramble a bit. Well, Actually I may post some info on my blog but I’ll hit on the main points.

    Commandos for the North are large in number but have gone way downhill recently. Even with most of the budget, the amount of money for training and equipment has been sharply cut and the available manpower pool has been drastically cut due to the long famine. Norks are shorter, weaker, smaller and dumber as an entire generation so the amount of those available to be commandos has shrunk. They can’t get any equipment to replace what they wear out never mind the upgrades. So they are not so scary anymore. They could do some damage, but they are not the SAS.

    Air Power. To quote the movie “A Bridge To Far” minimal. The Mig 21 is the main plane, and it was a world beater in 1955. It is not even an antique anymore. Their ADA is in similiar shape and even their bunker system can’t survive our stuff (we think, you can if you dig deep enough, but then you have to get out).

    CBRN: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear. They probably have all of them. Delivery is the bitch. They most likely cannot deliver Bio weapons or nukes. Chemical probably. This is probably the biggest threat, but also limited. They could hit Seoul, but nothing further south and it would not be pretty payback for them.

    Conventional Forces. Pathetic is being to nice to them. They have a mob of weaker, smaller dumber soldiers who don’t train. They have no fuel, and training ammo is non-existant. Some armored units have not moved out of their motorpool in over 2 years, never mind actually trained. Their equipment was obsolescent in 1990, now its junk or worse.

    The South Korea Military on the other hand is well trained, excellently equipped (almost our level), well led, and filled with very fit soldiers (and well educated too boot). One of the reasons the Norks no longer run commando ops to the south is that their people stick out because they are so much shorter than the average SK citizen, so that should give you an idea on how fit their regular army is.

    And the Norks would be fighting the last of the Old Style Wars. A Fulda Gap scenario where they would try to use masses of manpower to simply plow south. And they would get creamed.

    Of course I will put out the disclaimer, never underestimate the enemy. The Norks probably have some nasty tricks to play. This fight would be much more bloody than Iraq ever was. We would win but it would be a real fight and some serious losses are likely. The Norks would have horrific losses, much more than ours. But we would still have some losses and the damage to SK civilian centers (Seoul) would be pretty massive.

    Reply
  2. drteine

     /  May 29, 2009

    Well, I won’t disagree with anything you’re saying but if they did try a Fulda gap scenario, as evidenced by the ability of our cold war equipment to smash soviet cold war equipment (1990 and 2003) I would think a flight of A10s would obliterate their entire armor columns and the artillery would do the rest.

    I mean – the only M1s lost in 1990 and 2003 were due to friendly fire. And from lessons learned in 1990 there may not have even been any M1s lost in 2003.

    It could be so lopsided that only a sheer wall of flesh might get through but I would still think it would get shredded before it got too far.

    But as you say – don’t underestimate the enemy but I seem to remember similar concerns during 1990 and 2003 and during the actual ground war those turned out to be completely baseless.

    Reply
  3. Mike

     /  May 29, 2009

    True. But that is the point of having the concerns. If you go in expecting them to be that much better than they are you are much less likely to get surprised or do something stupid. We treated the Iraqi Army like the Soviets and went in (both times) with the mindset that this was going to be a tough fight and to be ready for anything. End result was us routing them. When we have gone in expecting walk-overs we have gotten things like Bull Run, Kasserine and Task Force Smith.

    I would rather be paranoid going in and be pleasantly surprised versus the other way around.

    Reply
  4. drteine

     /  May 30, 2009

    Oh certainly – I agree it is far better to be prepared and I think all the preparation is what allowed for the routs in 1990 and 2003. That and superior weapons, tactics, and overall equipment.

    Reply
  5. Mike

     /  May 30, 2009

    Yeah. My new CO just came from a Joint Command that was working on a lot of this stuff. He likes to have the “high brow” talks about where the army/military is going. Makes for good discussions. This is a major topic we have hit on.

    Reply
  6. I wonder if an attack by the NorKs might not be to actually conquer territory so much as to fark up the south. Given the low yield of their nukes (based on what I’ve heard), what if they weren’t trying to develop destructive power so much as they were going for long-lasting irradiation? They’ll never compete with the great powers on having bigger bombs, but a bunch of really dirty bombs directed at denying the So.K.’s the use of their ports, maybe?

    Reply
  7. These guys need to hire Terek Aziz.

    DPRK Foreign Ministry Spokesman Clarifies Its Stand on UNSC’s Increasing Threat

    Pyongyang, May 29 (KCNA) — A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Friday as regards the UNSC’s threat to put additional sanctions against the DPRK, terming its successful nuclear test a violation of the UNSC Resolution 1718.

    Over the past several decades, the DPRK has made every possible effort for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but the U.S., instead of seeking a substantial removal of nuclear threats, has steadily increased the level of pressure upon the DPRK and it has eventually brought even the six-party talks to collapse in wanton violation of the principles of respect for the sovereignty and sovereign equality, the underlying spirits of the September 19 Joint Statement, over the DPRK’s launch of satellite, the universally recognized right of each state, the statement noted, and said:

    At present, some countries were shocked at the news of the DPRK’s second nuclear test. But an exceptional act has its exceptional reason.

    The recent nuclear test conducted by the DPRK is the 2054th one on the earth.

    The five permanent members of the UNSC have conducted 99.99 percent of all the nuclear tests.

    Those countries have posed the biggest nuclear threats to the world. But they took issue with our first nuclear test, which was conducted in October 2006 as a self-defensive measure to cope with increased nuclear threats by the U.S., terming it a “threat to the international peace” and adopted the sanctions resolution against the DPRK. This is exactly the UNSC Resolution 1718.

    This resolution fabricated by the hypocrites has immediately invited a total rejection by the DPRK and we still do not recognize such resolution.

    The UNSC with such a record produced the “presidential statement” on April 14 putting in question only the satellite launched by the DPRK for the peaceful purpose and put into force the sanctions under its Resolution 1718 on April 24 only to cause an unbearable insult to the dignity of our people and gravely infringe upon the sovereignty of the DPRK.

    The DPRK is neither a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty nor to the Missile Technology Control Regime or MTCR. Such being the case, it has a right to conduct as many nuclear tests or missile launches as it wants in the event that the supreme interests of the state are infringed upon. Such self-defensive measures do not run counter to any other international law.

    The UNSC has committed such unprecedented crime as the wanton infringement upon the right of a sovereign state to explore outer space for peaceful purposes and, instead of repenting of it, it is proactive in its outcry to cover up its crime. Under these circumstances, the DPRK, at this point, would like to draw a clear line of confrontation which will help clearly state who is to blame for the future unpredictable development of the situation.

    First, the UNSC is involved in its high-handed act which will never be tolerated and it is the part of the self-defensive measures of the DPRK to respond to this with its own nuclear test which we had already made public to the world. There is a limit to our patience.

    It is none other than the U.S. and other forces courting the U.S. favor who should be held entirely responsible for driving the situation to such a pass as they took the DPRK’s peaceful satellite launch to the UN to launch a condemnation campaign.

    It is what they said to the DPRK that a satellite launch belongs to an independent right of a sovereign state. But, after our actual satellite launch, they took sides with the U.S. in its move to condemn the DPRK.

    Those countries remained silent when the large scale nuclear war exercises such as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises took place in the depth of the Korean peninsula. But, When the DPRK was compelled to conduct a nuclear test as a self-defensive measure, they are united in their voice, condemning it as “a threat to the regional peace and stability”.

    It means that they do not like the DPRK to possess what they had already put in place. In the final analysis, they mean small countries should obey big countries. The DPRK, though small in its territory and population, has self-confidence and grit that it is a politically and militarily strong country.

    Second, we solemnly demanded that the UNSC make an apology for its crime of having seriously encroached upon the sovereignty of a sovereign state in gross violation of the Space Treaty and that it withdraw all its previously-crafted, unfair resolutions and decisions. Such a demand still remains in force.

    As long as the Permanent Five alone invested with veto power and nuclear weapons have the mandate to identify what constitutes a “threat to international peace and security”, the UNSC is not supposed to bring their own acts of intimidation into question indefinitely.

    As long as the UNSC fails to respond to the DPRK’s just demand, the DPRK will not recognize any resolution and decision of the UNSC in the future, too.

    Third, if the UNSC will make further provocative actions, this will inevitably lead to the DPRK’s approach towards adopting stronger self-defensive counter-measures.

    The end of the Cold War worldwide works only between big powers, but a Cold War still persists on the Korean Peninsula.

    The UNSC-crafted UN Command itself is a signatory to the Korean Armistice Agreement.

    Any hostile act by the UNSC immediately means the abrogation of the Armistice Agreement.

    The world will soon find out how the army and people of the DPRK will stand up against the high-handed and get-it-alone approach of the UNSC in defending its dignity and sovereignty.

    The U.S. is keen on using a catchphrase “Carrot and stick.”

    It would be better for the “Donkey” of the U.S. Democratic Party to lick the carrot.

    Reply
  8. Mike

     /  June 2, 2009

    Sheesh, and I thought my Aunt Jan was long winded on stupid bs. Well, the thing about hurting the south is that it would be tough to do. Those nukes are not only Hiroshima level tech in the BOOM department, they are that way in the delivery department. For these to do any damage (other than some fallout) they need to get to the ports or cities. Currently the Norks lack that ability. They do not possess a missile capable of delivering a nuke, they don’t have the tech to make it cannon deliverable, and they have no bombers that can get it to target. Their best chance is via bomber, but considering the newest bomber is a 1960s Soviet job and it has to get through the US and ROK Air Forces those are long odds.

    But they are working on bomber and missile capability. And unless someone steps on them they could get it over time.

    Reply
  9. Mike

     /  June 2, 2009

    A bums rush of the ROKs Air Defenses is a possibility. But still tough to do, I have seen what the ADA belt was link in 96 and it sure hasn’t gotten any weaker.

    Hell, we should bum rush them. That would be the last thing ANYONE would expect. Take out Kim Ill Jong and it could very well be game over like that. He literally is the government, and it would be hard for anyone to immediately take over (especially since he has been making sure to remove anyone who can think without help).

    Whoof, that is a scary but tempting line of thought.

    Reply

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